Cliodynamica by Peter Turchin
npub1zx8m3wm7e5u82p3gyux48ktnegqh8zqqtux73wyz5usmmg0rxmsqccze5v@drss.io
Ancient history and today's politics through the lens of Cliodynamics ("history as science"). Recent books: End Times (2023), The Great Holocene Transformation (2025).
Follow into
Artificial Scientists Are Not as Good as Human Scientists
Save into
1 Oct 2026
Especially when humans work with machines
What Came First in Human Evolution: Intelligence or Culture?
Save into
27 Sep 2026
Where Yual Noah Harari went wrong
Túpac Amaru II’s Rebellion according to Structural Demographic Theory
Save into
19 Sep 2026
Sophomore Lynnfield High School, MA, USA
Cliodynamics and AI: the mid-2026 update
Save into
10 Sep 2026
And a new AI-generated compendium on the state of Cliodynamics
Eight Centuries of Wages in Britain II
Save into
6 Sep 2026
Secular Cycles of Well-Being in the Industrial Period
Eight Centuries of Wages in Britain I
Save into
30 Aug 2026
Secular Cycles of Well-Being in the Pre-Industrial Period
Human Unpredictability is Overrated
Save into
22 Aug 2026
And History Is Not “One Damn Thing After Another”
Why Is College So Expensive?
Save into
10 Aug 2026
Two hundred years of Yale tuition data tell a remarkable story
The Future Has Arrived
Save into
14 Jun 2026
How Ginkgo Bioworks Has Turned Science Fiction into Science Reality
The Structural-Demographic State of America VI
Save into
7 Jun 2026
The Newest Data on Well-Being/Immiseration
Well-being and Immiseration in Contemporary China
Save into
24 May 2026
Structural-Demographic Analysis
My Blog Has Moved to Substack
Save into
19 Apr 2025
As I wrote at the beginning of 2025, the previous year turned out to be quite a challenge. It took me a while to recover and, then, to deal with the “stuff” that accumulated while I was
My 2024
Save into
1 Jan 2025
The year that has just ended was personally very difficult for me. First, in April my wife developed a very serious medical condition—it was really touch-and-go, and she ended up spending ten days
War in Ukraine VI: Adding Economic Power to the Attrition Model
Save into
10 Dec 2023
In the previous post of the series, I promised to show how both the Economic Power and Casualties Rates hypotheses can be combined within the same computational model. Yesterday, the SocArxiv finally
War in Ukraine V: Alternative Hypotheses
Save into
9 Dec 2023
One thing I realized since I posted my blog series on the War in Ukraine (last one here) in July is that previously I explicitly addressed only one hypothesis (which predicts a win for Russia). But
When A.I. Comes for the Elites
Save into
20 Nov 2023
The remarkable success of ChatGPT and other generative A.I. has inflamed the already roiling debate about how the rise of machines will affect workers, and ultimately shape our societies. Doomers
Fall 2023: An Update
Save into
5 Nov 2023
The last update on “What I am working on” was posted a year ago, and it is high time to do another. Last year was very intense. It started with preparing for the publication of my trade book,
My African Vacation
Save into
10 Sep 2023
I went to Africa for the first time more than 30 years ago, and I was immediately hooked. Now I try to get there every year for a mind-clearing vacation — no work, just enjoying the countryside and
War in Ukraine IV: Projections
Save into
22 Jul 2023
In this installment I will use the ideas discussed in previous posts to make projections. A projection is different from a forecast (and, certainly, from a prophecy) in that it is not an attempt to