Peter Turchin

19 Apr 2025

As I wrote at the beginning of 2025, the previous year turned out to be quite a challenge. It took me a while to recover and, then, to deal with the “stuff” that accumulated while I was

1 Jan 2025

The year that has just ended was personally very difficult for me. First, in April my wife developed a very serious medical condition—it was really touch-and-go, and she ended up spending ten days

10 Dec 2023

In the previous post of the series, I promised to show how both the Economic Power and Casualties Rates hypotheses can be combined within the same computational model. Yesterday, the SocArxiv finally

9 Dec 2023

One thing I realized since I posted my blog series on the War in Ukraine (last one here) in July is that previously I explicitly addressed only one hypothesis (which predicts a win for Russia). But

20 Nov 2023

The remarkable success of ChatGPT and other generative A.I. has inflamed the already roiling debate about how the rise of machines will affect workers, and ultimately shape our societies. Doomers

5 Nov 2023

The last update on “What I am working on” was posted a year ago,  and it is high time to do another. Last year was very intense. It started with preparing for the publication of my trade book,

10 Sep 2023

I went to Africa for the first time more than 30 years ago, and I was immediately hooked. Now I try to get there every year for a mind-clearing vacation — no work, just enjoying the countryside and

22 Jul 2023

In this installment I will use the ideas discussed in previous posts to make projections. A projection is different from a forecast (and, certainly, from a prophecy) in that it is not an attempt to

19 Jul 2023

Sixteen months into the war the final outcome of this conflict is still uncertain. Public statements from both sides continue to express unbounded confidence in their eventual victory (see, for

15 Jul 2023

The first part of this series gave an introduction to the Osipov-Lanchester (OL) model and illustrated the ideas with the example of the American Civil War. In this second part, my aim to extract a