Based on an October 10, 2025 conversation between Michael Herman and ChatGPT.
I feel the following doesn’t match 100% with what is presented in the book #Reshuffle but there are a few interesting tidbits.
1. Background: What the “Reshuffle” Model Means
In the book Reshuffle, the core concept is that platforms continually reconfigure (“reshuffle”) the value chain — deciding:
- Where to play (which layers of the ecosystem to own, open, or delegate)
- How to win (by controlling key interfaces, user access, or data flows)
A reshuffle happens when a player changes the architecture of participation — shifting value, control, and power between ecosystem actors.
2. Applying This to the Mobile App Ecosystem
Let’s consider the mobile ecosystem as layers (simplified):
LayerExamplesCurrent GatekeepersHardwareApple, Samsung, QualcommApple, GoogleOS / RuntimeiOS, AndroidApple, GoogleDistributionApp Store, Play StoreApple, GooglePayment / IdentityApple Pay, Google Pay, Sign in with AppleApple, GoogleApps / ServicesTikTok, Uber, SpotifyIndependent developersUser Relationships / DataAnalytics, Ads, Identity GraphsMeta, Google, Apple increasingly
3. What a “Reshuffle” Looks Like Here
A reshuffle model describes how control, innovation, or value capture moves between these layers. Here are several current and emerging reshuffles:
A. Reshuffle Downward (Re-integration)
Platform owners pull value back down toward themselves:
- Apple limits tracking (ATT) → cripples ad networks → reclaims privacy and ad advantage.
- Google moves privacy features into Android → weakens cross-app data collection.
- Super apps (WeChat, Grab) integrate multiple mini-apps inside one shell → pull distribution away from OS-level stores.
Effect: Platforms reclaim data, monetization, and developer dependence.
B. Reshuffle Upward (Decentralization / Open APIs)
Some innovations push value upward to developers and users:
- Progressive Web Apps (PWAs) bypass app stores.
- Cross-platform frameworks (Flutter, React Native) reduce dependency on native SDKs.
- Alternative app stores / sideloading (EU’s DMA) redistribute control.
Effect: Developers gain autonomy and flexibility, though discovery and monetization remain bottlenecks.
C. Reshuffle Laterally (New Platform Entrants)
New layers emerge, shifting boundaries:
- AI agents / assistants become new distribution channels (e.g., OpenAI’s ChatGPT apps, Perplexity’s mobile UI).
- Super app frameworks (e.g., Telegram mini-apps) become meta-platforms inside mobile OSes.
- Wallet-based ecosystems (identity, crypto, digital goods) create cross-platform continuity.
Effect: Gatekeepers may lose user touchpoints to “meta-platforms” that sit on top of the OS.
4. A “Reshuffle Model Canvas” for Mobile Apps
ElementDescriptionExampleTriggerWhat changes the distribution of value or control?Regulatory changes (DMA), new tech (AI agents), shifts in user behaviorAnchor LayerWhich layer redefines the interface?OS, identity, or paymentsRedistributed ValueWhat moves?Revenue, data, trust, discoveryNew GatekeepersWho gains control?AI assistants, mini-app frameworksOld GatekeepersWho loses control?App stores, SDK-based ad networksUser BenefitWhat improves for users?Choice, interoperability, integrated experienceDeveloper ImpactWhat improves or worsens?Distribution, economics, discoverability
5. Example: The “AI Agent Reshuffle”
In 2025 and beyond, an AI-driven reshuffle looks like this:
BeforeAfterUsers search for apps in App StoreUsers ask AI assistants to “book a taxi” or “edit a photo”Developers fight for app visibilityAI intermediates app selection and invocationApp Store controls discoveryAI layer controls orchestration and recommendationOS owns distributionAI owns user intent
Reshuffle Result: AI interfaces become the new “home screen.”
App stores become backend registries. The distribution and discovery value shifts to the AI layer.
6. Summary
A Reshuffle model for the mobile app ecosystem describes how power and value continually move among:
- OS and hardware vendors (Apple, Google)
- Developers and third-party ecosystems
- New intermediaries (AI agents, super apps)
- Regulators (mandating openness)
The model emphasizes layer-by-layer realignment — each “reshuffle” altering where innovation, value, and control reside.