AI Futures Project
npub1pvk7mc82qyepz9ygansness6s2sqalrdta8kpyz3x430t3pe689q3ymyzu@drss.io
Preparing for a world with AGI
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Q2.5 2026 Timelines Update: Uplift and Revenue
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16 Aug 2026
More methods for forecasting coding automation
Plan A: Suggestions For Further Work
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10 Jul 2026
Yesterday we released AI 2040: Plan A, but there’s lots of work left to do.
A forecast of Chinese DUV and EUV photolithography progress
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19 Jun 2026
What we can and can’t learn from ASML.
Grading AI 2027’s 2025 Predictions
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12 Feb 2026
How has AI progress compared to AI 2027 thus far?
Clarifying how our AI timelines forecasts have changed since AI 2027
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27 Jan 2026
Correcting common misunderstandings
Forecast how AI will progress in 2026
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17 Jan 2026
Predict benchmark scores, revenues, uplift, and public opinion
AI Futures Model: Dec 2025 Update
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31 Dec 2025
We've significantly improved our model of AI timelines and takeoff speeds!
Early US policy priorities for AGI
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9 Dec 2025
Near-term AI policy is confusing, except for these two recommendations
Scenario Scrutiny for AI Policy
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28 Oct 2025
A call for concrete stress-testing of AI policy proposals
How an AI company CEO could quietly take over the world
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21 Oct 2025
If the future is to hinge on AI, it stands to reason that AI company CEOs are in a good position to usurp power. This didn’t quite happen in our AI 2027 scenarios.
The world's first frontier AI regulation is surprisingly thoughtful: the EU's Code of Practice
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22 Sep 2025
Only the US can make us ready for AGI, but Europe just made us readier.
