Mesoscale Discussion 0779
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0545 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Areas affected...far northeast Kansas...southeast Nebraska...and
northwest Missouri
Concerning...Tornado Watch 225...
Valid 182245Z - 190045Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 225 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes in the next few hours is
maximized from northeast Kansas into far southeast Nebraska and
northwest Missouri. A couple strong tornadoes are possible.
DISCUSSION...Supercells currently extend from the KS/NE border area
southwestward into much of northeast KS along the cold front, and,
along the warm front from southeast NE into northwest MO. Recent
trends have shown better organization and structure to these
supercells, with tornadoes confirmed. Most notably, a tornadic
supercell was ongoing over Marshall County KS, and, from Holt into
Atchison Counties in northwest MO.
The environment over this area favors strong tornadoes, with 0-1 km
SRH of 200-300 m2/s2, locally higher, and very strong instability.
This area near the warm front is where surface winds are backed to
southeasterly, and where the low-levels remain sheltered from the
deeper boundary layer mixing as opposed to farther south where
surface winds exceed 30+ kt.
The low-level jet will remain at or above 50 kt through early
evening, which will also allow the warm front to push farther into
MO and southern IA. While the cold front is more likely to undercut
cells south of I-70 in the near term with eventually transition to
damaging wind threat, areas across the KS/NE/IA/MO borderland region
will continue to experience a threat of strong tornadoes.
..Jewell.. 05/18/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39099698 39769664 40219645 40459568 40609514 40609470
40289453 39869464 39479511 39369571 39099698
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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