Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Friday...
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central
Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow aloft across the
dryline on D4/Friday may support potential for severe storms.
Guidance shows disagreement in the location of the dryline, with
some guidance depicting the dryline back in the OK/TX Panhandle and
others with a further east dryline into western Oklahoma. Forecast
soundings show limited inhibition by the afternoon, with strong
daytime heating and temperatures warming into the mid to upper 80s.
Steep low to mid-level lapse rates are also noted, with moderate to
strong instability ahead of the dryline. Given weak inhibition and
modest mid-level flow, convective initiation is possible by the
afternoon. Shear profiles are marginally sufficient to support
organized storms, with a mix of multi-cell and supercell modes. A
15% area was added with this outlook where confidence is greater in
convection occurring.
...D5/Saturday-D8/Tuesday...
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected
across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the
west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the
central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will
keep severe potential low.
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