Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0858 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Thursday - D5/Friday...
On D4/Thursday, a stationary front will extend across the southern
Plains and mid Mississippi Valley and east to the Carolinas.
A few stronger thunderstorms may develop south of this boundary,
however, the strongest upper-level flow will be displaced to the
north, limiting confidence in a more organized severe threat.
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central
Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow across the dryline on
D5/Friday may support some potential for severe storms. Overall,
forcing for ascent will remain limited and there is low confidence
in including a severe risk area at this time.
...D6/Saturday-D8/Monday...
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected
across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the
west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the
central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will
keep severe potential low.
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