Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...Afternoon Update...
The previous forecast remains on track. Continued Elevated fire
weather conditions are expected across eastern AZ into central NM
with a narrow region of locally critical conditions reemerging in
the Middle Rio Grande Valley. Channeling effects will promote a few
afternoon hours of southwesterly 15-25 mph winds amid 10-15% RH
where critically dry fuels exist.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026/
...Synopsis...
The active and progressive mid-level synoptic pattern responsible
for recent critical fire weather across the Southwest and southern
High Plains will begin transitioning toward a more quasi-zonal flow
regime on Wednesday. Below-normal temperatures and fairly widespread
precipitation will overspread of the central and eastern CONUS. This
incoming airmass will temporarily dampen the fire weather threat
across a broad portion of the country and support a beneficial
green-up of herbaceous vegetation in some areas, particularly across
the northern CONUS, where fire-slowing vegetation has struggled to
emerge this spring. However, dry and breezy conditions remain in
place for at least one more day across portions of the Southwest.
...Southwest...
Despite the flattening upper-level pattern, a lingering belt of
moderate southwesterly flow aloft (30-40 kts near the top of the
afternoon boundary layer due to strong diurnal heating) will remain
over the Southern Rockies. Sustained southwest winds of 10-20 mph
will align with minimum relative humidity values of 10-20%. Thus, an
area of Elevated fire weather conditions will exist as this wind/RH
overlap coincides with critically dry fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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