Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 191700Z - 201200Z
...Morning Update...
Across eastern New Mexico, a passing cold front overnight has led to
good humidity recoveries and much cooler temperatures this morning
over the Plains, thus Elevated highlights were trimmed closer to the
higher terrain. Locally critical fire weather conditions remain
likely this afternoon within the Middle Rio Grande Valley as
southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) align with RH
values of 10-15% along a region of 80-90th percentile ERCs. See the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026/
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will continue to meander over the
Intermountain West today, maintaining a tight surface pressure
gradient over the Southwest. Deep boundary-layer mixing during the
afternoon will allow stronger mid-level flow to transfer to the
surface, resulting in widespread breezy conditions. Meanwhile, a dry
air mass will remain entrenched over portions of southern Nevada and
the Mojave Desert, driving minimum RH values into the single digits
and teens with localized areas of elevated wind gusts over
receptive, but sub-critically dry fuels.
...Southwest...
As daytime heating maximizes this afternoon, deep surface mixing
will yield sustained south/southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph. Given
the dry antecedent conditions, surface RH will quickly drop to
10-15% across central/southern NM and portions of eastern AZ.
Channeling effects within terrain-favored areas, specifically the
Middle Rio Grande Valley, will likely produce localized Critical
fire weather conditions, where sustained winds may briefly exceed 20
mph alongside RH values near 10-15%.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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