Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
Longwave upper troughing will remain positioned across the
Intermountain West today. While the strongest mid-level flow will
transition northeastward in tandem a northeastward-ejecting
mid-level shortwave, a second mid-level shortwave rotating
southeastward across California and the western Great Basin will
help maintain enhanced mid-level flow across much of the Great Basin
and Southwest. Combined with a persistent dry air mass and lingering
enhanced mid-level flow, this will continue to support expansive
fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin and
Southwest today.
...Southwest/Four Corners region...
The aforementioned enhanced mid-level flow continuing to linger
across portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region will
support a corridor of sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20
mph this afternoon. With RH values forecast in the 10-15% range and
several days of antecedent dry/windy conditions exacerbating fuel
dryness/receptiveness (ERCs in the 80th to 95th percentiles or
greater), this will promote elevated to locally critical fire
weather concerns across much of Arizona, southeastern Utah,
western/central Colorado, western/central New Mexico, and southern
Wyoming. Deep boundary layer mixing will also support occasional
wind gusts to 30-35 mph across much of this region.
The best chance for locally critical conditions to emerge will
extend from central Colorado southward into north-central New
Mexico, where ERCs are noted to range from the 90th to 99th
percentiles. Modestly stronger mid-level flow is forecast to linger
later into the afternoon across this region, which should promote
marginally stronger sustained surface winds and occasional wind
gusts of 30-40 mph. An upgrade to Critical was considered for this
area, but uncertainty remains regarding a longer duration and
broader overlap of 20+ mph sustained winds and RH less than 15%. A
targeted upgrade could be needed in the D1 update should
guidance/observations indicate the development of critical wind/RH
conditions across a more widespread area within this region.
..Chalmers.. 06/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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