Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The broad trough in the West and ridge in the East will persist
through the remainder of the week. A moist airmass across much of
the CONUS east of the Rockies will support repeated days of
convective activity. Large-scale forcing will remain weak, but
shortwave troughs emanating from the western trough will promote
development within the Plains and the Upper Midwest where a stalled
surface boundary will be positioned. Both Thursday and Friday show
potential for MCS development from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Friday
will likely have a more prominent shortwave trough as a lifting
mechanism. Where this potential severe weather will be focused is
not certain given the expected convection that will occur each day
prior. For Saturday, some models show the shortwave trough moving
into the Upper Midwest where another round of convection may occur.
Severe probabilities are certainly possible in the coming days as
confidence continues to increase.
Another area to watch this week will be the Northeast. Here,
stronger northwesterly flow at mid levels will continue into part of
the weekend. Depending on how the shortwave trough evolves in the
Upper Midwest, this feature may eventually move into the Northeast
and promote thunderstorm development late this weekend into next
week. Predictability remains too low for highlights, however.
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