Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe
hail and wind is possible across parts of the central and eastern
Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota Monday into Monday night.
...Discussion...
Downstream of digging large-scale mid-level troughing and an
associated surface cyclone slowly approaching the British Columbia
and Pacific Northwest coast, ridging may become increasingly
prominent across Baja California through the southern Rockies and
central Great Plains during this period. Mid-level heights may tend
to remain steady or slowly rise as far north as the eastern
Montana/North Dakota international border, in the wake of a notable
mid-level trough forecast to progress through northwestern Ontario
and Hudson Bay by late Monday night.
It appears that one vigorous impulse embedded within the troughing,
and forecast to continue accelerating east-northeastward, to the
north of the international border, may provide support for stronger
secondary cyclogenesis near the northern Manitoba/Ontario border
into southern Hudson Bay late Monday/Monday night.
To the east of the mid-level ridging, weak mid-level troughing may
continue to drift slowly east of the Mississippi Valley, toward the
Appalachians.
In association with this evolving regime, the potential for
organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low
Monday through Monday night across most areas, with the possible
exception of parts of the central/eastern Dakotas into northwestern
Minnesota
...Northern Great Plains...
Deeper surface troughing and mid-level height falls are forecast to
pass to the north of the international border through this period.
However, there appears at least some signal in model output that
boundary-layer moisture return to the vicinity of weak pre-frontal
surface troughing, coincident with southeastward suppression of
warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, could
allow for scattered strong thunderstorm development posing a risk
for severe hail and wind across parts of the central/eastern Dakotas
into northwestern Minnesota. Preceding the leading edge of the
cooling in lower/mid-levels, it is possible that a zone of
strengthening ascent associated with warm advection could support an
upscale growing cluster, aided by updraft inflow of moderately
unstable air. However, this remains more uncertain at this time.
..Kerr.. 07/04/2026
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