Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA...AND THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and
evening across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and the
northern Plains.
...VA/NC vicinity...
Upper troughing over the Midwest will continue to slowly shift east
toward the Appalachians on Monday. Modest deep-layer southwesterly
flow will overspread the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic
vicinity as a surface low develops in the vicinity of WV. A surface
boundary/cold front will sag southward across PA while surface
troughing develops in the lee of the VA/NC mountains. A very moist
airmass will persist and moderate destabilization is forecast.
Thunderstorm clusters will once again develop and pose a risk for
sporadic wind damage Monday afternoon into early evening.
...Northern Plains into northwest MN...
An upper shortwave trough will move east across the Canadian
Prairies, glancing the U.S. northern Plains vicinity. This will
bring a band of enhance mid/upper westerly flow across the region
while a surface cold front develops southeast through the afternoon
and nighttime hours. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s
dewpoints northward ahead of the front beneath modestly steep
midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong
destabilization. It is uncertain how far south convection may
develop as large-scale ascent weakens into South Dakota and capping
increases. However, supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast
soundings, and where storms do develop, an accompanying risk for
severe gusts and large hail is possible. An upgrade to Slight risk
(level 2 of 5) may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in
storm coverage increases.
..Leitman.. 07/04/2026
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