Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
The IsoDryT area was expanded across portions of northeast
California, northwest Nevada, and into southwest Idaho. An
upper-level shortwave trough, currently off the coast of southern
California, is forecast to track northward across California and
into the northwest Great Basin over the next 36 hours. This will
bring moisture and forcing for ascent aloft, which will help develop
isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms across portions of
northern California, northwest Nevada, southern/eastern Oregon, and
southwest Idaho. High-based shallow convective showers will track
north across central/northern California and northwest Nevada during
the day, with thunderstorm development likely starting in the
afternoon and continuing through the evening and possibly overnight.
ERCs are generally below average for this time of year, but field
reports indicate increasing fuel receptiveness and initial attack.
Isolated to perhaps scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are
possible across portions of central/southern Colorado, most likely
along and east of the southern Front Range and Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. There is potential for thunderstorms to develop west of
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and along the eastern San Juans into
the Sawatch Range. An IsoDryT area was not introduced given the
potential limited corridor of drier storms and uncertainty regarding
development and coverage. However, any storm that does develop west
of the I-25 corridor, will be over near to record dry fuels.
Additionally, deep pyroconvection over active large wildfires in the
vicinity of this area is possible.
..Nauslar.. 07/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will primarily be driven by dry thunderstorm
potential on Sunday. While confidence in dry thunderstorms is
greatest across portions of the Pacific Northwest, more isolated
concerns may emerge across eastern Arizona into southwest New
Mexico.
...Pacific Northwest...
Upper-level ridging will continue to build across the Southwest/Four
Corners region through the weekend. Guidance continues to show
fairly good agreement in the northward propagation of a shortwave
trough across northern CA into southern OR on the western periphery
of the upper ridge through the day. A subtle influx of Pacific
moisture ahead of the wave coupled with mid-level ascent/cooling
will likely support isolated thunderstorms from northern CA into
southeast OR and perhaps far northwest NV. Slow storm motions may
allow for pockets of wetting rainfall, but fairly dry low-level
conditions and PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches will support
dry lightning strikes, especially away from the heavier cores. Based
on information from local offices, fuels across the region are
generally receptive and should support lightning ignitions. Dry
thunderstorm highlights were introduced to address this concern.
...Eastern Arizona/Southwest New Mexico...
A modest influx of mid-level moisture from the Gulf of California
into eastern AZ/western NM is anticipated through the day Sunday.
Some recent model solutions hint that this moisture will provide
sufficient buoyancy for very weak convection by late afternoon when
boundary-layer mixing will be maximized. Very weak forcing for
ascent under the upper ridge suggests that any thunderstorm
potential will most likely be tied to orographic ascent along the
eastern Mogollon Rim and within the Gila region. While confidence in
thunderstorm development is limited based on the synoptic regime and
somewhat limited signal in CAM guidance, the potential for dry
thunderstorms over a receptive fuel landscape is highlighted.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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