Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will primarily be driven by dry thunderstorm
potential on Sunday. While confidence in dry thunderstorms is
greatest across portions of the Pacific Northwest, more isolated
concerns may emerge across eastern Arizona into southwest New
Mexico.
...Pacific Northwest...
Upper-level ridging will continue to build across the Southwest/Four
Corners region through the weekend. Guidance continues to show
fairly good agreement in the northward propagation of a shortwave
trough across northern CA into southern OR on the western periphery
of the upper ridge through the day. A subtle influx of Pacific
moisture ahead of the wave coupled with mid-level ascent/cooling
will likely support isolated thunderstorms from northern CA into
southeast OR and perhaps far northwest NV. Slow storm motions may
allow for pockets of wetting rainfall, but fairly dry low-level
conditions and PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches will support
dry lightning strikes, especially away from the heavier cores. Based
on information from local offices, fuels across the region are
generally receptive and should support lightning ignitions. Dry
thunderstorm highlights were introduced to address this concern.
...Eastern Arizona/Southwest New Mexico...
A modest influx of mid-level moisture from the Gulf of California
into eastern AZ/western NM is anticipated through the day Sunday.
Some recent model solutions hint that this moisture will provide
sufficient buoyancy for very weak convection by late afternoon when
boundary-layer mixing will be maximized. Very weak forcing for
ascent under the upper ridge suggests that any thunderstorm
potential will most likely be tied to orographic ascent along the
eastern Mogollon Rim and within the Gila region. While confidence in
thunderstorm development is limited based on the synoptic regime and
somewhat limited signal in CAM guidance, the potential for dry
thunderstorms over a receptive fuel landscape is highlighted.
..Moore.. 07/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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