Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging is noted across the southwestern CONUS/northwest
Mexico in early-morning water-vapor imagery. This ridge is expected
to build northward over the next 24 hours and will maintain very
dry, but relatively benign, conditions across the Four Corners/Great
Basin region where fuels remain the driest. However, more focused
fire weather concerns may emerge within the lee of the Cascades and
across portions of central Colorado this afternoon and early
evening.
...Cascades...
A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in water-vapor imagery
approaching the Pacific Northwest. Stronger low and mid-level flow
associated with this wave will overspread the Cascades through the
day, resulting in strengthening downslope winds along the eastern
slopes. Latest high-res guidance depicts 15-20 mph winds through the
more prominent gaps where downslope warming/drying will likely
result in pockets of 20-25% relative humidity. Although sustained
elevated fire weather conditions may be somewhat localized, recent
fire activity suggests fuels are adequately receptive to support the
fire weather concern.
...Colorado...
The 00 UTC GJT sounding from western CO sampled very steep (9.4
C/km) mid-level lapse rates with adequate mid-level moisture to
support weak buoyancy despite a PWAT value of only 0.35 inches. This
air mass will advect eastward over the next 18 hours and will likely
support pockets of adequate MUCAPE for weak convection this
afternoon. Despite upper-level height rises, upslope flow along the
central Rockies may support a few thunderstorms to the west of the
Front Range where very dry low-level conditions will be favorable
for dry thunderstorms. Given receptive fuels across the region and
some potential for dry lightning strikes, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm
highlights were maintained.
..Moore.. 07/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Forecast Products·