SPC MD 2339

Mesoscale Discussion 2339
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Areas affected...northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 302056Z - 302300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few low topped storms may produce instances of
marginally severe hail and strong to sever wind this
afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing forcing
for ascent with the trough behind the surface low across New Mexico
is leading to gradual destabilization and increase in thunderstorm
activity across northeastern New Mexico. Moisture is somewhat
limited to the west across New Mexico, with low to mid 50s dew
points, improving with eastward extent into the OK/TX panhandles
with around 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE. This fairly marginal instability
will be sufficient, given strong deep layer shear, for a few
low-topped storms/transient supercells capable of marginally severe
hail and strong to severe wind. This will shift eastward into the
panhandles with time this evening. Overall, this potential looks to
remain fairly isolated and watch issuance is not anticipated.

..Thornton/Mosier.. 09/30/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35970449 36350440 37240294 37530185 37430122 37050085
            36690069 36350072 36130093 35600233 35320339 35310404
            35970449 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

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