Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 041630Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau
into the Mid-Atlantic, with potential for numerous damaging wind
gusts. Additional severe thunderstorms are expected across the Great
Plains this afternoon and evening, posing a risk for severe wind
gusts and large hail.
...Mid Atlantic...
A hot summer day is forecast across the Mid Atlantic region today
with temperatures well into the 90s and dewpoints ranging from the
mid 60-lower 70s F. Full sun will result in steep low-level lapse
rates and high CAPE values beneath moderately strong northwest
mid-level flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
along/east of the Blue Ridge and spread eastward across parts of
PA/VA/NJ/DE through the late afternoon and evening. Parameters
remain favorable for downburst winds in these clusters of storms.
...PA/NY into southern New England...
A weak shortwave trough and associated mid level speed max is
rotating southeastward out of Ontario/Quebec into the northeast US.
Ample low-level moisture and pockets of moderate CAPE will result in
widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development from northern PA
into central NY. These storms will spread southeastward into
southern New England by early evening. The strongest cells will
pose a risk of damaging wind gusts.
..IL/IN...
A remnant MCV from overnight convection is analyzed over eastern IA,
with a surface boundary extending eastward just south of CHI. The
air mass to the south of the boundary across IL will become very
unstable by mid-afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorms.
Favorable thermodynamic parameters suggest a risk of damaging winds
as these storms organize and track into IN by evening.
...KS/MO...
An ongoing cluster of strong/severe storms is affecting eastern KS.
Given the moist and unstable air mass to the east and sufficient
mesoscale organization, it is probable that this cluster will
persist into the afternoon. Storms will track into western MO with
a continued risk of locally damaging wind gusts.
...KS/OK/AR...
In the wake of the aforementioned cluster of storms, new development
is likely later this afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary
across southern KS and northern OK. High CAPE values to the south
of the boundary will promote the ENH risk of damaging winds and some
hail as storms build southeastward across central/eastern OK and
into western AR this evening.
...TX Panhandle...
A weak surface boundary will be the focus for scattered late
afternoon thunderstorms over the southern/eastern TX Panhandle. The
strongest cells may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail for a
few hours.
...Northeast CO...
Southerly low level winds will maintain dewpoints in at least the
40s over parts of eastern CO this afternoon despite strong
heating/mixing. This will be sufficient to allow scattered
thunderstorms to form along the foothills and DCVZ. A few severe
cells are possible with large hail being the main risk.
...MN/SD...
Similar to yesterday, a few afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a weak shortwave
trough. The strongest cells might produce large hail or gusty
winds.
..Hart/Weinman.. 07/04/2026
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